If the mPayment actually reduces customer pain (acknowledging the pain of doing anything on a phone these days), then an mPayment can work. If there are existing systems which already work well, the mPayment will fail - just because you can do something doesn’t mean you will…

More here if you’re interested: http://blog.masabi.com/2008/04/judging-when-mpayment-makes-sense.html

I do think emerging economies like India and China (and maybe Africa) could be the potential surprise packages - if you think of mobile payments broadly (i.e., not just contactless but also the SMS/application usage models). But again the combination of banks and telcos as protagonists is the worst possible mix to make this happen. So I am not betting my money on this (literally..!!)

This is not about the current debate on value and revenue between the carriers and the bankers. It’s also not about the debate between proximity on cards versus proximity in phones (hint: that decision has already been made - in case you didn’t get the email).

This is about evolution in payments and the continuing automation of those tasks. It’s not if - but when - and the when will be determined as always by those that see the value and build the solution. The skunkworks and small emerging companies are there. It’s just about when the big players will decide to play. (hint: Qualcomm seems to have made that decision already with Firethorn)

Let’s talk again in early 2009 and see where we are!

I’d be the first to agree that NFC and other half baked mobile transaction systems were of limited potential, but there are other approaches.
There’s a lot more to it than transactions at the counter or on the internet. A whole lot more. The internet is a fraction of the real world in terms of usage and commerce and it seems people have forgotten the power of TV and radio in generating transactions. Most observers appear to look through blinkers.

I think you’re all going to be pleasantly surprised.

In the other hand, mobile payment does concern also other services such as ticketing, M2M, P2P money transfers, virtual parking, … where contactless doesn’t bring anything, because simply not necessary. All these services are more and more widely used, for example in Europe where new actors like Crandy can show already 400 000 users in counter.
If you take the virtual parking (ex: Ghent in Belgium), where you can remotely pay, extend your parking, being informed before the end of time, or simply stop and being reimbursed, that are real services with added value created with the mobile usage.
Mobile payment is wide with a fast growth, and can’t be only assimilated to NFC.

“It would also be interesting to really understand why a new technology like Pay By Touch failed in spite of having their kiosk implementations subsidized. (Hint, customers did not see the value in signing up at a kiosk when presenting a card at checkout was easy and convenient.)”

Merchant subsidy as a business model is understandable. . .However, if there is not convenience, consumers simply will not adopt. Ultimately, the merchant is truly motivated to adopt new payment workflows when either the consumer demands acceptance or the incentive is so great that there is value (as is becoming popular in new receipting and loyalty plans).

1. How much do you buy online? As recent data shows of those on the Internet, more now have mobile phones than credit cards. (And don’t look outside the US or it is more.)
2. Lets replace the “contact -less” (hat means a bunch of new devices and interfaces and training for the consumer) with your cell phone”, for the sake of discussion. Which would you use?
3. You lost your card “versus” you lost your phone. Which has the most potential cost to all involved for unauthorized use?
4. How many retail locations have problems with PCI because the actual transactions are transmitted over a link that is not encoded, i.e. WiFi? How did Target loose all that data? Would the cellular network be a little harder to crack into?
5. How much less would it cost the retailer to cut out Visa and MasterCard? (Again, don’t look now, into China, India, Africa, etc.)

I hope many decision makers at mobile operator and manufacturers, banks and all other newly appeared players will read this, come back to reality and understand that the way is still very long until NFC based payments will be widely used and accepted for the benefit of all.

For now most prefer to believe that “we just have to solve a couple of tiny technical things and we will get the goose that lays the golden eggs”. Nobody wants to invest -or so few!-, everybody wants to extract its pennies from each transaction for a supposedly “service”…

As Karen argued very opportunely, this reminds us the WAP story and we all know how widely WAP is used today…

“what gets adopted in payments (and most everywhere else) is a function of something much more complex”

I’m not so sure. What gets adopted is what is compelling and adds value.