An article in yesterday’s New York Times describes the on-going saga of mobile phones as wallets. It concluded two things that we have been saying for quite some time: the business model of NFC-enabled mobile wallets is lacking and it is unlikely that Americans will be using their cell phones at checkouts in the next three - or as one person was quoted saying – five years. It seems as though even the staunchest proponents of NFC-enabled phones are admitting now that the business case just isn’t there yet for this new technology to be adopted.

But while the article describes the arm-wrestling of the carriers and card companies over who pays whom how much, it neglected to discuss the two key constituents in this whole equation who are the real drivers of commerce – the merchant and consumer. Without either on board, the card companies and carriers can duke it out over the business case from now ‘til doomsday and still lose the battle. Merchants haven’t and don’t see the need to invest in NFC enabled terminals – especially now –and consumers don’t see the need to invest in new phones. While carriers and card companies are trying to sort out who is top of wallet and how they can get there, consumers and merchants are in survival mode; contemplating the convenience of waving versus swiping at checkout just isn’t top of mind for either.

But that doesn’t mean that commerce can’t come to the mobile phone – or hasn’t already. iPhone apps are cropping up everywhere that enable a more seamless and user-friendly check out experience and brings commerce to those millions of iPhone users. Digby and other mobile mall applications also enable a seamless check-out experience on the Blackberry. And, as you have also heard me mention before, ShopText, with its simple one-click transaction, enables merchants (with and without a .mobi site) to convert offline and online media into purchases by tagging keywords to shortcodes and thereby ringing their cash registers and enabling every single person with a mobile phone to make a purchase. ShopText is also the only mobile application at this point that can also work at the physical point of sale without new the installation of new terminals.

All of these applications solve three critical problems. First, they get consumers used to using their phones to make purchases, and second, they offer a business case for merchants who like having mobile as another sales channel and a use case for consumers who already have phones and applications installed. Perhaps, most important, they are enabling mobile wallets the old-fashioned iTunes way – with a consumer card preference stored the first time a transaction is done which is the default card used each time a purchase is made. ShopText, in particular, is completely carrier and card agnostic since their application is built to solve the merchant’s problem of wanting to drive sales thru a mobile channel and pulls thru consumer demand (and card preferences).

Mobile commerce is happening where there is a business case for it to do so. NFC hasn’t yet and isn’t likely deliver that for some time to come. The risk to those who reject mobile commerce alternatives is that by the time they finally get to market with something workable, another technology will get merchants and consumers on board first. At that point, a great business case won’t be all that relevant.