One Singular Sensation
Several years ago, I had the pleasure of attending a lecture by Ray Kurzweil in which he described his process for new product development; “First, I write the brochure.” The inventor of the first text-to-voice computer technology shared how he had conceived of what he felt was another useful concept to aid the blind. His idea, as described in his Braille brochure, was to label machinery and switches in manufacturing environments with Braille labels. The idea got no further than the brochure. The feedback from his intended customers was that the last thing they or their sighted colleagues had time for was to read while the assembly line was in production.
What got me to thinking about Kurzweil was Charlie Rose’s interview of Marc Andreessen last Thursday. Andreessen described a Kurzweilesque cyber “brochure” technique in which folks post banner ads for their yet-to-be-built concepts on Google with nothing behind them. Their objective is to see who and how many people have an interest in a particular product or offer. According to Marc Andreessen, this is nothing new, just a faster variation on an old theme.
In the early 1900’s it was not uncommon for Publishers to advertise new books in their papers just to gauge audience interest in the book. If they garnered enough interest and orders, then they would print the book for distribution. I fondly refer to that as the “McLaughlin” technique.
When Ronald Reagan was President and Chrysler was looking for its first bail out, John McLaughlin (The McLaughlin Group), a friend and Palm Springs neighbor of the Reagan’s, called the White House and invited the President and Ms. Reagan to his home for dinner. His premise was that the Iacocca’s had already accepted his invitation. After the Reagan’s accepted McLaughlin’s dinner invitation during their Western White House break, McLaughlin called the Iacocca’s and invited them to join them.
As this current issue of the “Catalyst Code” blog goes to “send,” many are trumpeting the end of the paper publishing business. The New York Times stock is selling for less than the Sunday Times. Today, the Kindle 2 hits the street. Thinner, lighter, 20% faster and easier to read than its original version with 16 shades of gray (as compared to 4 shades in the original). The real kicker, though, is that the device can now store up to 1500 of the 230,000 books now available for downloading on Amazon (as contrasted with 300 books on the original).
Will we be better off in a world where, in real time, we can return to the serial publishing era of Charles Dickens, only this time on the net? There will be no need for “brochures.” Yet, perhaps with the Kindle 2, the line between brochure and final content may become irrelevant.
I don’t know the extent to which the Kindle 2 will bring us closer to “singularity,” but, I expect it will be the “Singular Sensation” of 2009.
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Before singularity there will be a “I’ve had enough and I’m not going to take it anymore”. People will see the necessity for reflection so the brain and body can catch up with the speed the information. It is in that quietude that new ideas blossom. Will it be OM or not even a sound, just the stillness that gives rise to creation?
I have mixed feelings about the kindle. I think it’s a really great idea and will eventually take over printed books. But at this point, it’s overpriced and everybody knows that these kinds of decisions, for the vast majority of people, come down to economics. What’s the kindle cost? 400 bucks? Plus 10 dollars per book download… my whole point is that, right now, you can get that same book in a paperback edition for between 7.95 and 16.95. So if you’re looking at the low end of that, you’re never going to recoup the cost of the machine. And if you’re buying the expensive books, you’re looking at buying seventy books before it’s cost effective…
The ipod really caught on when itunes made it cost effective by making it possible to get the same three songs you would listen to off of an album for 3 dollars instead of buying the CD with 12 more songs you won’t listen to, for an extra 12 bucks. So you save the extra cost of the device by not having to spend 300 bucks for 300 songs you don’t want, to get the 50 songs you do…
On top of that, if you read on the bus or rail-system on the way to work, do you really need to have access to 1500 books at once? You’re probably only reading one book at a time anyway. So it’s no different to carry around a half-pound book than it is to carry around a quarter-pound computer that’s the same volume.
I don’t know, I just don’t think they’ve hit the mark yet… Now if you could download books to your phone for 15 cents a chapter I think more people would buy into it. Because you can’t replicate the page turning excitement of an actual book on a computer anyway.
And for my dollar, I’d rather have a hard copy of the magazine or book… If all we have are electronic books, what are we going to put on our bookshelves.
I know major media is hyping the kindle a lot. But I just don’t see it right now.
Newspapers are a different story because they make all of their income off advertising, and alot of that from classifieds. Everybody looks to the internet for information on buying a new car or renting an apartment. Books don’t have that problem.
I don’t know what the situation is for magazines. But I still buy the magazines I want, while I read the paper online…
Printed newspapers are clumsy anyway, so there’s no love lost when you don’t have to hassle with turning two foot pages.